What Does Minus Mean In Point Spread

One standard deviation below the mean is equivalent to a Z-score of -1. If the data follows a normal or approximately normal distribution then 16% of observations are below this value. In a way, the point spread will even the field for both teams. The point spread gives a reason for bettors to risk money on both teams. The better team playing in the game is considered favorite. They have to win by the point spread offered by the sportsbook. The favorite in a game is listed as being minus (-) the point spread. What does it mean by 1 or 2 standard deviations of the mean? Data that is normally distributed (unimodal and symmetrical) forms a bell shaped curve. The mean, median and mode are all approximately the same value.

Second only to moneyline bets, point spread bets are the next most popular type of sports bet that you can make. Whether you are an expert sharp who crushes the books or you’re a brand-new bettor, point spread bets are most likely going to be a big part of your winning betting strategy. In fact, some successful professional bettors exclusively utilize point spread bets to make up their winning strategy.

In this guide, we’re going to walk you through all the details you need to know to understand point spreads, make point spread bets, and hopefully start turning a nice profit with them. We’ll start with some basic information for the novice bettors, including what a point spread bet is, how to make one, how they typically pay out, and the benefits of utilizing this type of bet.

Following that, we’ll get into some basic and advanced strategies of betting point spreads for the more seasoned sports bettors. Regardless of where you fall on the skill scale, you’re hopefully going to get some value from this article.

If you’re brand new to sports betting or it’s been a really long time, we recommend reading the guide from top to bottom, as the sections will build on information from prior sections. If you’re a seasoned bettor looking for a specific piece of information, you can go right ahead and skip down to the section you need or to the bottom of the page to see the point spread betting strategies.

Without further ado, let’s jump into the world of point spread bets.

The Nuts and Bolts of a Point Spread Bet

Before we can talk about how to crush point spread bets, we need to make sure that everyone reading this fully understands exactly what a point spread bet is and how they work. A point spread bet is a wager in which you bet which team is going to outperform their expected performance. The sportsbook will set a line based on how well they think each team will do during the game, and then you choose which team will perform better than that set line.

Since they can’t write “5 or 6,” they decide that they think the Dolphins are going to win by 5.5 points. If they think the Dolphins are going to win by 5.5 points, this obviously means that they think the Jaguars are going to lose by 5.5 points. A team can’t win the game by a different number of points than what the other team loses the game by. That should be common sense, but sometimes basic stuff can be confusing when you’re taking in a lot of new information, so we wanted to clarify.

So, the line for this game would look something like this.

• Miami Dolphins -5.5
• Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5

You’ll notice that one of the teams has a plus sign in front of the point spread line, and the other has a minus sign. The plus sign indicates the team that is the underdog (Jaguars), and the minus sign indicates the team that is the favorite (Dolphins). The number after that, as we’ve already pointed out, is by how many points the sportsbook thinks each team is either a favorite or underdog.

If the game were to go exactly as the sportsbook predicts, the Dolphins would win by 5.5 points. Now, there aren’t half points in NFL football, so it’s either going to be 5 or 6 points. We’ll talk about why they use half points in point spreads here in a minute.

As we stated, to win a point spread bet, you have to bet on the team that outperforms their predicted results. Does that mean the team has to win? Nope! All the team has to do is do better than the predicted line, and you win your bet. This means that a team can lose the game, but you can still win your point spread bet on them. On the other side, a team can win their game, but you can still end up losing your point spread bet.

The Dolphins are expected to win by 5.5 points. So, since they can’t win by half points, if they win the game by 6 or more points, you would win your bet. What happens if they win the game by 5 or fewer points? You would lose your bet because they are underperforming how they were supposed to do. If they lose the game, you obviously will also lose your bet because they are way underperforming.

What about with the Jaguars? Well, they are expected to lose the game by 5.5 points. What happens if they lose the game but by only 5 points? You’d win your bet because they are outperforming what the point spread said they would do. If they lose the game by 5 or fewer points, you will win your bet. If they win the game, you will obviously win your bet because they are way outperforming what was predicted of them by the point spread line.

You may already be seeing the point why, but let’s talk about why half points are often used in point spreads by the sportsbook. The sportsbook will do this to ensure that there is a winning side to the bet. If they made the point spread 6 points or 5 points instead of 5 and a half, there becomes the possibility of a tie. If the line is 6 points, and the Dolphins win by two field goals, then the bet is a tie, and all the money is returned to everyone.

This isn’t that bad for each bettor, but the casino will make $0 off the bet, and they don’t like that. You will see whole number lines when they are necessary, but the sportsbook heavily prefers to use half-point lines for obvious reasons.

That’s all there is to a point spread bet! You bet on which team will outperform their predicted results, and that is it. In the next section, we’re going to talk about how point spread bets are paid out and how to calculate your potential winnings.

Point Spread Movement

Now that you fully understand what it takes to win a point spread bet, let’s talk about how the sportsbook makes money and why that is important. If you recall from our discussion on moneyline bets, the sportsbook will alter the payouts to bring in the desired amount of money they want on each side of the bet. Remember, the sportsbook’s entire goal with any bet is to get the same amount of action on each side of the game, take a small percentage off the top, and make money no matter who wins the game.

If the sportsbook gets $500 bet on the Dolphins and $500 bet on the Jaguars, it doesn’t matter to them who wins. If the Dolphins win, they’ll pay them with the Jaguar bets. If the Jaguars win, they’ll pay them with the best from the Dolphins fans. They then will take a small percentage off the top for their profit for facilitating the bets.

This is the sportsbook’s goal. Obviously, though, bets are not always going to come in evenly on both sides of a game. The sportsbook has to do something to try and encourage and discourage action as they need to in order to try and get the equal action they desire. With moneyline bets, they accomplish this by changing the payouts. If they need more bets on one team, they’ll change the payouts to be higher for that team and lower for the other team. Remember, with moneyline bets, it does not matter by how many points a team wins, just that they win.

With point spread bets, though, they rarely will change the payouts (as you will see in the next section). What they do instead to encourage and discourage action on each side of the bet is to change the point spread. For example, let’s say that all the money is pouring in on the Dolphins, and the sportsbook needs to try and get some more money in on the Jaguars to even things out.

What they will do is shift the point spread. Currently, the Dolphins need to win the game by more than 5.5 points for someone to win that bet. To discourage action, they might change that to 6 or 6.5 points. Now, if the Dolphins win by those two field goals, instead of someone winning this bet, they will now lose.

When they adjust the Dolphins line to -6.5, it at the same time shifts the Jaguars line from +5.5 now to +6.5. This means the Jags can now lose the game by up to 6 points, and you would still win a bet on them. This would hopefully encourage action on that side of the game. If the line shift does not get the desired results, it will shift further until it does. If it gets way too much of a result, then it will shift back the other direction. The sportsbook will continue to do these shifts all the way up until bets close to try and get an even amount of money on each side of the game.

As you may guess, this can create some unique opportunities to get better lines if you can accurately predict the point spread movements. We will talk about that much more in depth in the strategy section of this guide.

Understanding and Calculating Point Spread Payouts

Now that we’ve covered the basics of the point spread bet, let’s talk about the more fun side of things – what you’re going to get paid when you correctly pick a winner. The nice part about spread bets is that most of the time they are going to pay out the exact same regardless of which team you bet on. The reason for this is that the only reason the sportsbook ever moves a line is to get more action on one side of the bet or the other. Since they are already doing this by moving the actual point spread number, there is no need to do it with the payout.

The one exception is when they really don’t want to move a point line, but they still need to try and switch action. We will look at an example of this shortly that will show you what this will look like and when you might expect to see it. Here’s what the point spread bet from earlier might look like in an actual sportsbook.

• 0034 Miami Dolphins -5.5
• 0035 Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5

Sometimes, they will look like this:

• 0034 Miami Dolphins -5.5 (-110)
• 0035 Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5 (-110)

The first way that we presented it is like the “shorthand” version of the second way. It’s how you’re going to end up seeing it most of the time. In the second way, you see that both bets are going to pay out at a rate of -110. This is the standard payout for almost all point spread bets. Regardless of which side of the bet you are on, you can expect to be paid out at -110. We will cover the one exception shortly.

So, when you don’t see any payout odds listed, you can safely assume they are going to be -110. If you make a $100 bet at -110, you will get back a profit of $90.91. Notice that you are not getting paid back at even money. What’s going on here? Well, that $9.09 is the sportsbook taking their percentage for their profit.

Remember earlier when we talked about the sportsbook taking $500 in bets on both sides? Let’s imagine that happens, and each side is five separate $100 bets. So, the bets they take in look like this.

• $100 bet on the Jaguars point spread at -110
• $100 bet on the Jaguars point spread at -110
• $100 bet on the Jaguars point spread at -110
• $100 bet on the Jaguars point spread at -110
• $100 bet on the Jaguars point spread at -110
• $100 bet on the Dolphins point spread at -110
• $100 bet on the Dolphins point spread at -110
• $100 bet on the Dolphins point spread at -110
• $100 bet on the Dolphins point spread at -110
• $100 bet on the Dolphins point spread at -110

The sportsbook successfully achieved their goal of getting the same amount of action on both sides of the bet. Let’s see what happens for the sportsbook if the Dolphins win and if the Jaguars win.

As you can see, they will make a profit no matter what. You may also start seeing that winning 50% of your bets will not break you even. You’re going to have to do a little better than that to break even or turn a profit.

The majority of the time you make a point spread bet, you will be paid at this rate of -110. But on rare occasions, the sportsbook will change the payout odds and leave the point spread the same. This happens a lot when they don’t want to put out the possibility of a tie or if they think that the half-point move is going to cause an avalanche of action that would leave them heavily unbalanced the other direction.

For example, in football games, the sportsbook rarely likes to move off a +-2.5 line to +-3. This usually causes that avalanche of action and also puts out the big possibility of a tie and no profit for them. Instead, this is what you might see. Let’s say the Jags and Dolphins game is actually a lot closer, and the current spread is this.

• 0034 Miami Dolphins -2.5 (-110)
• 0035 Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 (-110)

Let’s say that the sportsbook has an unbalanced number of bets with too much action on the Dolphins. Normally, they’d shift the line to -3, and the problem would fix itself. However, in football, a shift to +-3 usually causes a huge shift in action. So, here’s what you might see instead to encourage action on the Jaguars.

• 0034 Miami Dolphins -2.5 (-120)
• 0035 Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 (EV)

You can now get the Jaguars at +2.5 at even money. This means that instead of being paid out at -110, you will receive even money for your bet. If you make a $100 bet, you’ll now get $100 in profit back instead of just $90.91. This will sometimes fix the problem. A lot of sharp bettors do see this as a sign that the line will probably move to +3 right before the game. It doesn’t always happen, but sometimes waiting could be smart if you would rather have the +3 instead of the even money at +2.5.

If you don’t like math and just want a pretty close way of determining your payout on a point spread bet, you’re in luck. Just assume you’ll be getting about 90% of what you bet back in profit. So, if you bet $10, you should get about $9 in profit. If you bet $30, you should get about $27 in profit.

The Benefits of Using Point Spread Bets

You may already see the benefits of betting point spreads, but we wanted to take a minute and hammer home some of the reasons that these bets are a great addition to a winning sports betting strategy.

Bet on Teams You Think Are Going to Lose

Without spread bets, if you think a team is going to lose, you aren’t able to intelligently bet on them. If you think that a team is greatly underestimated but is still going to lose, you’re out of luck. But thanks to spread bets, you can bet on teams that you’re confident are still going to lose the game.

First, this is great for entertainment value. Got a favorite team that loses most of their games? Well, now you can bet on them and not be setting money on fire. Second, this is great for profitability. Often, you may have predictions and see trends with teams that aren’t always winning. You might be the master of spotting a team’s problems and analyzing when they’re going to be getting better.

What Does Minus Mean In Point Spread

With spread bets, you now have the betting flexibility to jump on these predictions and turn them into money. If you’ve ever been in a bar where someone was cheering for a team that was down by too many points to come back by, you either saw one of the most die-hard fans ever, or you saw someone who was betting the spread.

Easier to Understand Value

When you’re picking winners with moneyline bets, it can be a bit challenging for you to see with the naked eye whether or not the bet has value. If a team is +200 to win, is that enough value for you? If you’re a seasoned sports bettor or you have some complex formulas you use, you can probably tell definitively if that has value or not. But what about for the rest of the people that like to use their gut and feel a bit more?

Point spread bets make this possible. While you may not be able to tell if +200 is a good line, you might be able to tell if +4.5 points is a good line or not. Points are a metric that we all regularly use and understand. This makes quickly seeing value and using our gut to make picks much easier and much more accurate.

Point Spread Betting Strategies

We’ve gotten through all of the basics and more, and now it’s time to talk strategy. Ultimately, it’s going to come down to being able to spot value and pick winners, but there are some tips and tricks that you should keep at the forefront of your mind when making your selections.

Predict and Exploit Line Movement

If you’ve been betting for a long time, you know how much value there is in getting an extra half point or even a full point on a bet. It can literally be the difference between winning and losing. If you haven’t been betting for long, just ask a seasoned sports bettor or anyone in the sportsbook if a half point makes a difference. We guarantee they will have hundreds of stories of bets they lost by only a half point.

What this means for you is that you need to look for any opportunity to get your hands on an extra half point or more. The way you do this is by predicting how the lines are going to move and then deciding if you should bet now, not bet at all, or wait for the line to move more in your favor. Remember, once you make a point spread bet, you are locked into that line.

Start tracking lines and watching them throughout the week leading up to a particular game. Try and see if you can start to see trends or reasons the line moves. Often, the lines will move based on news stories or public opinion. Injuries, suspensions, and weather will also play a big role in the movement of lines. If you happen to see a line move for a reason that you think is not legitimate, you may find yourself a great betting opportunity.

Calculate Your Spread Predictions Before Looking at Lines

One of the best tips we’ve ever heard when it comes to point spread bets is making your own spreads before you look at any of the lines. Take the games that you might be interested in betting and calculate out what you think the spread is supposed to be. Then, take those spreads and compare them against the sportsbook. If you see lines that are equal to or more in your favor, then you’ve found value and should bet.

The problem that a lot of bettors run into is that they let what the sportsbooks have as lines affect their opinions. This can force you to miss value and talk yourself out of something that you see. You can prevent this by hiding the book lines before making your own. Additionally, if a line doesn’t look favorable right away, you’ll know how far you need it to move in your favor to make it a wise bet.

The Public and the Sharps

Regarding line movement, there are a few trends that seem to play out quite often on higher-profile games. The public has a strong tendency to hammer the favorite late in the week right before the game. Keep in mind that “late in the week” refers to the days right before a game. If the game is earlier in the week, this refers to the few days right before.

This means that if you’re looking to bet against the favorite, you might want to wait until late in the week to place your bet. As the bets pour in late on the favorite, the odds will move to try and entice more action on the underdog (the team you want to bet on). Even if it does not move, you should still be able to get the same bet at the same spread. And if for some strange reason it goes the other way, you can just wait and bet on the next game. There are no shortages of betting opportunities, so there’s no need to force bets unless you’re just an action junkie betting for entertainment purposes.

If you happen to see a big line movement early in the week, these are most likely from the sharp bettors who are betting large sums of money. Strategically speaking, this will at least let you know which side of the bet the smart money is on. Sometimes you can still jump on board with them and still get some value, but sometimes the value may be gone by the time they move the line. This will have to be something you decide on a case-by-case basis based on where you think the value starts and stops on a bet.

Double Down on Good Moves

If you recall, we said that you were locked in on a particular point spread once you’ve made your bet. But this doesn’t mean that you aren’t able to place a second bet if the line moves even more in your favor and you are confident in it.

The line opens, and it’s the Dolphins -4. This is a great line for you, and you decide to make the bet. Following this, the public jumps onto a feel-good story about the Jaguars and bets them heavily. The line shifts to -3.5. Now, your original bet is still at -4, but now you potentially have an opportunity to double down on your bet. If you’re confident in the Dolphins and your prediction, you might be smart to make a second bet at the Dolphins -3.5.

If you’re not very confident in the prediction to begin with or prefer a lower-risk approach, you don’t have to double down. You can keep your original bet and call it a day. But if you like your spot, you’re going to like the extra half point even better. The takeaway here is that you don’t have to make the second bet, but the option is there if you want it.

The Wrap-Up

Hopefully, you can now consider yourself an expert on point spread bets. While they’re simple bets in nature, they harness a lot of power when it comes to turning a profit. Professionals all over the world utilize these on a daily basis to crush the books. Now it’s your turn to take what you’ve learned here, blend it with your predictions and research, and start crushing the sportsbooks for yourself. Don’t let the simplicity of these bets fool you. Your earning potential is huge, and point spread bets are definitely a medium to the top of the sports betting industry.

Spread betting is any of various types of wagering on the outcome of an event where the pay-off is based on the accuracy of the wager, rather than a simple 'win or lose' outcome, such as fixed-odds (or money-line) betting or parimutuel betting.

A spread is a range of outcomes and the bet is whether the outcome will be above or below the spread. Spread betting has been a major growth market in the UK in recent years, with the number of gamblers heading towards one million.^[1] Financial spread betting (see below) can carry a high level of risk if there is no 'stop'.^[2] In the UK, spread betting is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority rather than the Gambling Commission.^[3]

Purpose[edit]

The general purpose of spread betting is to create an active market for both sides of a binary wager, even if the outcome of an event may appear prima facie to be biased towards one side or the other. In a sporting event a strong team may be matched up against a historically weaker team; almost every game has a favorite and an underdog. If the wager is simply 'Will the favorite win?', more bets are likely to be made for the favorite, possibly to such an extent that there would be very few betters willing to take the underdog.

The point spread is essentially a handicap towards the underdog. The wager becomes 'Will the favorite win by more than the point spread?' The point spread can be moved to any level to create an equal number of participants on each side of the wager. This allows a bookmaker to act as a market maker by accepting wagers on both sides of the spread. The bookmaker charges a commission, or vigorish, and acts as the counterparty for each participant. As long as the total amount wagered on each side is roughly equal, the bookmaker is unconcerned with the actual outcome; profits instead come from the commissions.

Because the spread is intended to create an equal number of wagers on either side, the implied probability is 50% for both sides of the wager. To profit, the bookmaker must pay one side (or both sides) less than this notional amount. In practice, spreads may be perceived as slightly favoring one side, and bookmakers often revise their odds to manage their event risk.

One important assumption is that to be credited with a win, either team only needs to win by the minimum of the rules of the game, without regard to the margin of victory. This implies that teams in a winning position will not necessarily try to extend their margin—and more importantly, each team is only playing to win rather than to beat the point spread. This assumption does not necessarily hold in all situations. For example, at the end of a season, the total points scored by a team can affect future events such as playoff seeding and positioning for the amateur draft, and teams may 'run up' the score in such situations. In virtually all sports, players and other on-field contributors are forbidden from being involved in sports betting and thus have no incentive to consider the point spread during play; any attempt to manipulate the outcome of a game for gambling purposes would be considered match fixing, and the penalty is typically a lifetime banishment from the sport; such is the lack of tolerance for manipulating the result of a sporting event for such purposes.

Spreads in sports wagering (U.S.)[edit]

Spread betting was invented by Charles K. McNeil, a mathematics teacher from Connecticut who became a bookmaker in Chicago in the 1940s.^[4] In North America, the gambler usually wagers that the difference between the scores of two teams will be less than or greater than the value specified by the bookmaker, with even money for either option. An example:

• The bookmaker advertises a spread of 4 points in a certain game;
  • If the gamblers bet on the 'underdog', they are said to take the points and will win if the underdog's score plus the spread is greater than the favorite's score.
    • The eventual score is Underdog 8, Favorite 10: 8 + 4 > 10, so the gambler wins;
    • The eventual score is Underdog 8, Favorite 13: 8 + 4 < 13, so the gambler loses.
  • If the gamblers bet on the 'favorite', they give the points (sometimes called lay the points) and will win if the favorite's score minus the spread is greater than the underdog's score:
    • The eventual score is Underdog 5, Favorite 10: 10 – 4 > 5, so the gambler wins;
    • The eventual score is Underdog 8, Favorite 10: 10 – 4 < 8, so the gambler loses.
  • Ties aka 'Push'
    • The eventual score is Underdog 9, Favorite 13: 9 + 4 = 13, so the gambler ties 'pushes'. The reverse is also the same the gambler takes the favorite and it is 13 - 4 = 9

Spreads are frequently, though not always, specified in half-point fractions to eliminate the possibility of a tie, known as a push. In the event of a push, the game is considered no action, and no money is won or lost. However, this is not a desirable outcome for the sports book, as they are forced to refund every bet, and although both the book and its bettors will be even, if the cost of overhead is taken into account, the book has actually lost money by taking bets on the event. Sports books are generally permitted to state 'ties win' or 'ties lose' to avoid the necessity of refunding every bet.

Betting on sporting events has long been the most popular form of spread betting. Whilst most bets the casino offers to players have a built in house edge, betting on the spread offers an opportunity for the astute gambler. When a casino accepts a spread bet, it gives the player the odds of 10 to 11, or -110. That means that for every 11 dollars the player wagers, the player will win 10, slightly lower than an even money bet. If team A is playing team B, the casino is not concerned with who wins the game; they are only concerned with taking an equal amount of money of both sides. For example, if one player takes team A and the other takes team B and each wager $110 to win $100, it doesn't matter what team wins; the casino makes money. They take $100 of the $110 from the losing bet and pay the winner, keeping the extra $10 for themselves. This is the house edge. The goal of the casino is to set a line that encourages an equal amount of action on both sides, thereby guaranteeing a profit. This also explains how money can be made by the astute gambler. If casinos set lines to encourage an equal amount of money on both sides, it sets them based on the public perception of the team, not necessarily the real strength of the teams. Many things can affect public perception, which moves the line away from what the real line should be. This gap between the Vegas line, the real line, and differences between other sports books betting lines and spreads is where value can be found.

A teaser is a bet that alters the spread in the gambler's favor by a predetermined margin – in American football the teaser margin is often six points. For example, if the line is 3.5 points and bettors want to place a teaser bet on the underdog, they take 9.5 points instead; a teaser bet on the favorite would mean that the gambler takes 2.5 points instead of having to give the 3.5. In return for the additional points, the payout if the gambler wins is less than even money, or the gambler must wager on more than one event and both events must win. In this way it is very similar to a parlay. At some establishments, the 'reverse teaser' also exists, which alters the spread against the gambler, who gets paid at more than evens if the bet wins.

Sports spread betting[edit]

In the United Kingdom, sports spread betting became popular in the late 1980s by offering an alternative form of sports wagering to traditional fixed odds, or fixed-risk, betting. With fixed odds betting, a gambler places a fixed-risk stake on stated fractional or decimal odds on the outcome of a sporting event that would give a known return for that outcome occurring or a known loss if that outcome doesn't occur (the initial stake). With sports spread betting, gamblers are instead betting on whether a specified outcome in a sports event will end up being above or below a ‘spread’ offered by a sports spread betting firm, with profits or losses determined by how much above or below the spread the final outcome finishes at.

The spread on offer will refer to the betting firm's prediction on the range of a final outcome for a particular occurrence in a sports event, e.g., the total number of goals to be scored in a football (US: soccer) match, the number of runs to be scored by a team in a cricket match or the number of lengths between the winner and second-placed finisher in a horse race.

The gambler can elect to ‘buy’ or ‘sell’ on the spread depending on whether they think the final outcome will be higher than the top end of the spread on offer, or lower than the bottom end of the spread. The more right the gambler is then the more they will win, but the more wrong they are then the more they can lose.

The level of the gambler's profit or loss will be determined by the stake size selected for the bet, multiplied by the number of unit points above or below the gambler's bet level. This reflects the fundamental difference between sports spread betting and fixed odds sports betting in that both the level of winnings and level of losses are not fixed and can end up being many multiples of the original stake size selected.

For example, in a cricket match a sports spread betting firm may list the spread of a team's predicted runs at 340 – 350. The gambler can elect to ‘buy’ at 350 if they think the team will score more than 350 runs in total, or sell at 340 if they think the team will score less than 340. If the gambler elects to buy at 350 and the team scores 400 runs in total, the gambler will have won 50 unit points multiplied by their initial stake. But if the team only scores 300 runs then the gambler will have lost 50 unit points multiplied by their initial stake.

It is important to note the difference between spreads in sports wagering in the U.S. and sports spread betting in the UK. In the U.S. betting on the spread is effectively still a fixed risk bet on a line offered by the bookmaker with a known return if the gambler correctly bets with either the underdog or the favourite on the line offered and a known loss if the gambler incorrectly bets on the line. In the UK betting above or below the spread does not have a known final profit or loss, with these figures determined by the number of unit points the level of the final outcome ends up being either above or below the spread, multiplied by the stake chosen by the gambler.

For UK spread betting firms, any final outcome that finishes in the middle of the spread will result in profits from both sides of the book as both buyers and sellers will have ended up making unit point losses. So in the example above, if the cricket team ended up scoring 345 runs both buyers at 350 and sellers at 340 would have ended up with losses of five unit points multiplied by their stake.

Bets on the total (over/under)[edit]

In addition to the spread bet, a very common 'side bet' on an event is the total (commonly called the over/under or O/U) bet. This is a bet on the total number of points scored by both teams. Suppose team A is playing team B and the total is set at 44.5 points. If the final score is team A 24, team B 17, the total is 41 and bettors who took the under will win. If the final score is team A 30, team B 31, the total is 61 and bettors who took the over will win. The total is popular because it allows gamblers to bet on their overall perception of the game (e.g., a high-scoring offensive show or a defensive battle) without needing to pick the actual winner.

In the UK, these bets are sometimes called spread bets, but rather than a simple win/loss, the bet pays more or less depending on how far from the spread the final result is.

Example: In a football match the bookmaker believes that 12 or 13 corners will occur, thus the spread is set at 12–13.

• A gambler believes that there will be more than 13 corners, and 'buys' at £25 a point at 13.
  • If the number of corners is 16, the gambler wins (16–13) = 3 x £25.
  • If the number of corners is 10, the gambler loses (13–10) = 3 x £25.
• A 'sell' transaction is similar except that it is made against the bottom value of the spread.
• Often 'live pricing' changes the spread during the course of an event, increasing a profit or minimizing a loss.

In North American sports betting many of these wagers would be classified as over-under (or, more commonly today, total) bets rather than spread bets. However, these are for one side or another of a total only, and do not increase the amount won or lost as the actual moves away from the bookmaker's prediction. Instead, over-under or total bets are handled much like point-spread bets on a team, with the usual 10/11 (4.55%) commission applied. Many Nevada sports books allow these bets in parlays, just like team point spread bets. This makes it possible to bet, for instance, team A and the over, and be paid if both

team A 'covers' the point spread (wins by that amount or more)

and

the total score is higher than the book's prediction.

(Such parlays usually pay off at odds of 13:5 with no commission charge, just as a standard two-team parlay would.)

Mathematics[edit]

The mathematical analysis of spreads and spread betting is a large and growing subject. For example, sports that have simple 1-point scoring systems (e.g.,baseball, hockey, and soccer) may be analysed using Poisson and Skellam statistics.

Financial spread betting[edit]

What Does A Negative Point Spread Mean

By far the largest part of the official market in the UK concerns financial instruments; the leading spread-betting companies make most of their revenues from financial markets, their sports operations being much less significant. Financial spread betting in the United Kingdom closely resembles the futures and options markets, the major differences being

• the 'charge' occurs through a wider bid-offer spread;
• spread betting has a different tax regime compared with securities and futures exchanges (see below);
• spread betting is more flexible since it is not limited to exchange hours or definitions, can create new instruments relatively easily (e.g. individual stock futures), and may have guaranteed stop losses (see below); and
• the trading is off-exchange, with the contract existing directly between the market-making company and the client, rather than exchange-cleared, and is thus subject to a lower level of regulation.

Financial spread betting is a way to speculate on financial markets in the same way as trading a number of derivatives. In particular, the financial derivative Contract for difference (CFD) mirrors the spread bet in many ways. In fact, a number of financial derivative trading companies offer both financial spread bets and CFDs in parallel using the same trading platform.

Unlike fixed-odds betting, the amount won or lost can be unlimited as there is no single stake to limit any loss. However, it is usually possible to negotiate limits with the bookmaker:

• A stop loss or stop automatically closes the bet if the spread moves against the gambler by a specified amount.
• A stop win, limit or take profit closes the bet when the spread moves in a gambler's favor by a specified amount.

Spread betting has moved outside the ambit of sport and financial markets (that is, those dealing solely with share, bonds and derivatives), to cover a wide range of markets, such as house prices.^[5] By paying attention to the external factors, such as weather and time of day, those who are betting using a point spread can be better prepared when it comes to obtaining a favorable outcome. Additionally, by avoiding the favourite-longshot bias, where the expected returns on bets placed at shorter odds exceed that of bets placed at the longer odds, and not betting with one's favorite team, but rather with the team that has been shown to be better when playing in a specific weather condition and time of day, the possibility of arriving at a positive outcome is increased.

Tax treatment[edit]

In the UK and some other European countries the profit from spread betting is free from tax. The tax authorities of these countries designate financial spread betting as gambling and not investing, meaning it is free from capital gains tax and stamp duty, despite the fact that it is regulated as a financial product by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK. Most traders are also not liable for income tax unless they rely solely on their profits from financial spread betting to support themselves. The popularity of financial spread betting in the UK and some other European countries, compared to trading other speculative financial instruments such as CFDs and futures is partly due to this tax advantage. However, this also means any losses cannot be offset against future earnings for tax calculations.

Conversely, in most other countries financial spread betting income is considered taxable. For example, the Australian Tax Office issued a decision in March 2010 saying 'Yes, the gains from financial spread betting are assessable income under section 6-5 or section 15-15 of the ITAA 1997'.^[6] Similarly, any losses on the spread betting contracts are deductible. This has resulted in a much lower interest in financial spread betting in those countries.

Financial spread bet example[edit]

Suppose Lloyds Bank is trading on the market at 410p bid, and 411p offer. A spread-betting company is also offering 410-411p. We use cash bets with no definite expiry, or 'rolling daily bets' as they are referred to by the spread betting companies.

If I think the share price is going to go up, I might bet £10 a point (i.e., £10 per penny the shares moves) at 411p. We use the offer price since I am 'buying' the share (betting on its increase). Note that my total loss (if Lloyds Bank went to 0p) could be up to £4110, so this is as risky as buying 1000 of the shares normally.

If a bet goes overnight, the bettor is charged a financing cost (or receives it, if the bettor is shorting the stock). This might be set at LIBOR + a certain percentage, usually around 2-3%.

Thus, in the example, if Lloyds Bank are trading at 411p, then for every day I keep the bet open I am charged [taking finance cost to be 7%] ((411p x 10) * 7% / 365 ) = £0.78821 (or 78.8p)

On top of this, the bettor needs an amount as collateral in the spread-betting account to cover potential losses. Usually this is either 5 or 10% of the total exposure you are taking on but can go up to 100% on illiquid stocks. In this case £4110 * 0.1 or 0.05 = £411.00 or £205.50

If at the end of the bet Lloyds Bank traded at 400-401p, I need to cover that £4110 – £400*10 (£4000) = £110 difference by putting extra deposit (or collateral) into the account.

The punter usually receives all dividends and other corporate adjustments in the financing charge each night. For example, suppose Lloyds Bank goes ex-dividend with dividend of 23.5p. The bettor receives that amount. The exact amount received varies depending on the rules and policies of the spread betting company, and the taxes that are normally charged in the home tax country of the shares.

Terminology and acronyms[edit]

What Does Minus Spread Mean

HoD

High of day (the highest price the market traded at for the day).

Intraday trader

A trader operating from within each day's trade times.

LoD

Low of day (the lowest price the market traded at for the day).

London Turn

The time when markets subtly change direction between 12:15 and 13:15 GMT with a regularity that is more than coincidental.

Market session

The time of day that is governed mostly by the regional stock markets. Times vary from broker to broker, but the following are typical: Asian session (22:30 to 08:45 GMT), European session (06:45 to 16:45 GMT), US session (13:00 to 21:30 GMT).

Spread

The difference between the ask and bid prices, which may vary between markets and between brokers substantially.

Dangers of financial spread betting[edit]

According to an article in The Times dated 10 April 2009, approximately 30,000 spread bet accounts were opened in the previous year, and that the largest study of gambling in the UK on behalf of the Gambling Commission found that serious problems developed in almost 15% of spread betters compared to 1% of other gambling.^[7] A report from Cass Business School found that only 1 in 5 gamblers ends up a winner.^[8] As noted in the report, this corresponds to the same ratio of successful gamblers in regular trading.^[9] Evidence from spread betting firms themselves actually put this closer to being 1 in 10 traders as being profitable.^{[citation needed]}

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

1. ^The Sunday Times: 'World Cup to kick off boom in spread betting'
2. ^'The perils of spread-betting'. The Times. Sep 20, 2007. Archived from the original on July 19, 2008.
3. ^'Gambling Commission - Home'. www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk.
4. ^Gambling Times: What are the Odds?Archived 2011-02-04 at the Wayback Machine
5. ^The Sunday Times: Spread betting
6. ^'Income Tax – Assessable income derivation of income – spread betting'. Australian Government ATO. 3 March 2010. Retrieved 26 January 2011.
7. ^Budworth, David. 'Spread-betting fails investors in trouble'. thetimes.co.uk. Retrieved 11 October 2013.
8. ^Pfanner, Eric. 'Spread-bets on Cup venture into bizarre - Technology - International Herald Tribune'. The New York Times. Retrieved 11 October 2013.
9. ^Rayman, Richard. 'White Paper on Spread Betting'(PDF). Cass Business School. Retrieved 11 October 2013.

Further reading[edit]

• Malcolm Pryor (2007). The Financial Spread Betting Handbook. Harriman House. ISBN978-1-897597-93-4.
• John Piper (2007). Binary Betting. Harriman House. ISBN978-1-905641-23-9.
• Financial Services Authority, March 2007 review, Spread Betting Review

What Does Minus Mean In Point Spreads